Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $2,500 - $5,000
Travels from Phoenix, AZ (US)

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann, visit
https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann

Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Kevin Erdmann
Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $2,500 - $5,000
Travels from Phoenix, AZ

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Kevin Erdmann

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $2,500 - $5,000
Travels from: Phoenix, AZ

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann,
Visit https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann/
Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Blog Postings

An article at Politico about letting banks help pump some cash into the pandemic scarred economy

Here is the Mercatus Center version:https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19/get-cash-more-families-need-it-now-give-banks-more-discretion-make-home-equityHere is the Politico.com version:https://www.politico.com/news/agenda/2020/03/21/how-mortgages-can-ease-the-downturn-140317An excerpt:Certainly, the 2008 financial crisis has created some reasonable fear about mortgage lending. But the dangers that were present in 2008 ...

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The current issue of the National Review focuses on housing.

I have the cover article in the current issue of the National Review.  The issue includes a few good articles on the housing affordability topic.

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Long Term Yields as a call option

A long time ago, I played around with the idea that when yields are near zero, forward yields act more like call options on future interest rates than unbiased market expectations of future rates.The second half of this post.And here I discuss the idea.What this means is that there is an unreliable relationship between long term yields and uncertainty.  That is because there could be uncertainty about the business cycle, or rising concern about a contraction, which would normally cause rates to decline.&n...

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February 2020 Yield Curve Update

Well, this month appears to have presented the triggering event that will tip the Fed's hawkish bias over the tipping point.  It seems likely now that the Fed will chase the natural rate down to zero from here and there will be some sort of traditional contraction or recession relate...

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Housing: Part 362 - All residential investment flows to consumer surplus

There is a hypothesis that I would like to dig deeper into in the long term.  Looking at the long-term data on residential investment and personal consumption expenditures on rent, I would argue that all residential investment flows to consumer surplus.  This makes real estate somewhat special as an asset class.For example, if investment into communications technology increases, we would expect that to be related to a shift in more spending on communications tech.  More investment in railroads vs. airports would be related to more subsequent spending on rail travel vs. air travel, etc.  You build stuff and then people use it.But, the odd thing with real estate is that our consumption of it is high...

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Housing Part 363 - Did increasing debt cause rising home prices?

I've been playing around with some data on home prices, debt, and construction employment, by state.  First, here is a graph covering 4 distinctive periods of time, comparing changes in home prices to changes in construction employment. (The construction employment measure I am using is the proportion of state employment that is in construction. So if at the start of the period, 5% of the state employee base is in construction, and at the end of the period it is 6%, that registers here as a 20% increase in construction employment.)

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Housing: Part 362 - The Odd Case of the Elites vs. the Masses

It is strange that a rant from Rick Santelli delivered from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where he was being cheered on by a bunch of securities traders, is referenced as the founding moment of the Tea Party.  Wall Street style trading floors aren't usually associated with populist anti-Elite moments.But, the strangeness doesn't end there.  He's complaining about a new Obama proposal to modify mortgages for struggling homeowners.  Now, I'm not necessarily a huge fan of the modification idea.  What really would have been better would have been to stop the horr...

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January 2020 CPI Update

Nothing to really say here.  Shelter inflation continues at 3+%, non-shelter core inflation keeps muddling along at about 1.5%.  There is nothing particularly unsustainable about this, regarding the business cycle.  It's just a continuation of the sign that the Fed is err...

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Housing: Part 361 - Homeownership by age doesn't show much recovery.

Last quarter, I posted an update on homeownership rates at Mercatus.  Recently updates for the 4th quarter came out from the Census Bureau.  This is noisy data, so it's tough to get much out of quarter-to-quarter changes.  You sort of need to wait for trends to be established.For what it's worth, the homeownership rate increased slightly this quarter.  It could be the beginning of a trend, but for ages above 44, homeownership has been pretty flat for a while.

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January 2020 Yield Curve Update

Interest rates have declined back toward the August lows (though they have bounced back up a bit over the past couple of days).  Generally, this month has continued the trend that suggests the Fed will be a bit behind the curve, long term rates will remain low, and eventually they wi...

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