Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from Phoenix, AZ (US)

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann, visit
https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann

Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Kevin Erdmann
Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from Phoenix, AZ

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Kevin Erdmann

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from: Phoenix, AZ

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann,
Visit https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann/
Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Blog Postings

Housing: Part 343 - New Homes and Vacancies During the Boom and Bust

There may be a similar post to this one back in the previous 342 housing posts, but something I happened upon today reminded me of it.  Price trends among sold homes, vacant homes for sale, and existing homes give a clue about what happened during the turn in housing.I haven't shown it here, but the median existing home price didn't rise as much in 2004-2005 as the mean home price.  That is because expensive cities were getting more expensive, so the distribution of prices was becoming more skewed.  The rise of prices in the most expensive places caused the average to rise more than the median.

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January 2019 CPI Inflation

Non-shelter inflation came in relatively close to the Fed target this month, preventing non-shelter Core CPI inflation from declining too far as the hot January 2018 figure dropped off the back end.  Core non-shelter inflation fell from 1.5% to 1.4%.  Shelter inflation is holding up...

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Upside Down CAPM: Part 9 - The mystery of long term returns

Timothy Taylor has a post up about long term returns.There is this:In real terms, the "safe" rate doesn't look all that safe.Indeed, if you look at the "risky" assets like housing and corporate stock, but focus on moving averages over any given ten-year period rather than annual returns, the returns on the "risky" assets actually look rather stable.May I suggest the upside down CAPM model?  "Risky" assets earn a relatively stable *expected* return, which is whipsawed by real shocks to cash flows.  Over longer time frames, the s...

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Upside Down CAPM: Part 8 - Deficit Spending isn't stimulative or inflationary

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) - not to be confused with market monetarism (MM) - has been a popular topic lately.  I have some thoughts on the matter, which I will lay out here.  I ask for generosity from the reader, and for corrections in the comments if I declare something here that is demonstrably wrong.  I don't have a deep understanding of MMT, and this isn't meant to be a critique of it, but the main issues that seem to form the core of MMT thought are related to some ideas that have been floating around in my head that probably aren't good for much more than embarrassing me, but I want to air them out.As I have mentioned in some previous "Upside Down CAPM" posts, I think it is best to think of safe debt as a...

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January 2019 Yield Curve Update

I have discussed how there is a sort of mental accounting problem with the yield curve model.  The zero-slope is treated as a constant, when, in fact, meaningful inversion happens at low yields when the 10 year yield is as much as 1% higher than the fed funds rate, and at higher yields, the inversion has to become fairly steep to become meaningful.

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Housing: Part 342(A) - Building Homes Helps

Quick follow up to the earlier post.I should have added in the numbers for the US, for more perspective.  Here, I have also added Atlanta, which I would point to as an example of a city that was growing and has generous local building policies, but doesn't have as strong of an income trend as Austin.I apologize, though.  This first graph is getting a little messy with all this new data.  The messier lines are for housing permits per thousand workers, on the left scale. Per capita income is the right scale.Austin = BlueSeattle = RedSan Francisco = GreenUS = BlackAtlanta...

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Housing: Part 342 - Building homes helps

I pulled up these charts today while responding to an e-mail, and they seem worth sharing.This is Austin, Seattle, and San Francisco.  They each are cities with high demand for population growth and strong income growth.  They really make a nice example of how housing supply works.  When there is high demand for living in a city, it can block growth, like San Francisco, which may actually increase local incomes because of the obstructions to competition in the local labor force, but those higher incomes are generally claimed by higher housing costs.  And, the pressure is especially strong on households with lower incomes, who end up moving away at a high rate.It can grow tepidly, as Seattle has do...

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Washington Examiner reviews "Shut Out"

Joseph Lawler at the Washington Examiner did an excellent job writing a detailed review of "Shut Out".He even contacted Mian and Sufi both for comment. (Their work is subjected to extensive reinterpretation in the book.) They understandably didn't have time to provide thorough feedback.I will be very pleased if every journalist has anywhere close to the understanding and accuracy that Joseph has....

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Talking Housing on C-Span

Washington Journal kindly invited me to chat on Washington Journal the other day.Of course C-Span is top notch, and the host, John McArdle, had great questions.  I was pleasantly surprised that the callers also had questions that generally got at the heart of the problem in one way or another....

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"Shut Out" is officially published today

I will be on C-Span Washington Journal tomorrow (1/23/19) at 8am EST to talk about it.Here is a nice review by Tyler Cowen.And another by Ben Cole.Enter this code on the Rowman & Littlefield site for a 30% discount: 4S18MERC30...

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