Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from Phoenix, AZ (US)

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann, visit
https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann

Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Kevin Erdmann
Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from Phoenix, AZ

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Kevin Erdmann

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy

My first book, "Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: $5,000 - $7,500
Travels from: Phoenix, AZ

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann,
Visit https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann/
Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Blog Postings

Progress means giving up what is sacred today for sacred unknowns of the future

Arnold Kling has a link to a study on education with this abstract:Can schools that boost student outcomes reproduce their success at new campuses? We study a policy reform that allowed effective charter schools in Boston, Massachusetts to replicate their school models at new locations. Estimates based on randomized admission lotteries show that replication charter schools generate large achievement gains on par with those produced by their parent campuses. The average effectiveness of Boston’s charter middle school sector increased after the reform despite a doubling of charter market share. An exploration of mechan...

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An interesting juxtaposition of issues.

There is this:AOC & Bernie Sanders talking about limiting interest rates on unsecured debt to 15%.Then there is this:A story about a new type of loan to help people meet rent.Then there is this:A story about households who can't get mortgages for small amounts.There has been some pushback on the AOC/Sanders proposal.  But, it seems clear to me that those h...

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April 2019 Yield Curve Update

Sorry, I'm a little slow to this update.The yield curve inversion remains in place.  The curve as of Thursday looked very similar to the levels at the end of March and April.  This seems to be a trading opportunity.  I consider a yield curve to be a signal rather th...

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April 2019 CPI Inflation

We appear to be seeing a rebound in shelter inflation and a decline in non-shelter inflation.  The inverted yield curve, stabilizing home prices, declining residential investment, and a peak in existing and new home sales all suggest parallels to 2006.  This is now three consecutive months with core non-shelter deflation.  (Caveat: there were some parallels to 2006 two years ago, too, so follow my logic with a grain of salt.)

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Housing: Part 349 - Homeownership rates

The Census Bureau recently published the 2019 first quarter numbers on the housing stock.  Homeownership rates had bottomed out in 2016 at 62.9%.  That was one quarter which was probably an anomaly.  Generally, the bottom appears to have been about 63.5%.It had generally risen since then, up to 64.8% last quarter.  However, this quarter, it moved back down to 64.2%.I have been watching this number because there have been mixed signals on the housing market.  As the analysts at

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IW on the web

Tech entrepreneur David Siegel has an interesting and thorough post up at medium.com that is a sort of reference point to cutting edge or wise thinking on a vast array of topics.  One reason I am posting a link here is because David kindly includes the work of Scott Sumner and myself on the financial crisis and the housing bubble, prominently, as work that should be read and understood.Regarding our work, he begins with:Understanding the Great Financial Crisis

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March 2019 CPI Inflation

Here are the updated inflation numbers.  Non-shelter core is down to 1.1%, shelter is still at 3.2%, and core CPI inflation is at 2.0%.  As IW readers know, the reason this is important is that (1) shelter inflation is largely an imputed figure of rental values of owned homes that i...

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Real Phillps Curve Update

Here are a couple of charts comparing real wage growth and unemployment.  My contention is that the Phillips Curve is real, not inflationary.  It only appears to be inflationary when monetary policy is procyclical.  When unemployment is low, real wage growth is higher, largely because of better matching, fewer frictions in labor markets, and higher labor productivity.

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Housing: Part 348 - How Affordable Is Housing?

The other day, I looked at Price/Rent ratios over time in various cities.  In Dallas and Atlanta, by this measure, prices have been relatively similar in 1998, 2006, and 2019, but they were extremely low in 2013.  Other cities I looked at were more mixed.  Prices looked high in 2006, and generally looked higher in 2019 than they had in 1998 or 2013.Here, I will look at the same cities, in the same way, but here, I am looking at mortgage payments/rent payments, which is another way to think about affordability.A couple of caveats:1) Here I am using the 30 year conventional mortgage rate, but I am a...

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March 2019 Yield Curve Update

Since the zero lower bound distorts the yield curve at very low rates, an inverted yield curve at low rates is worse than an inverted yield curve at higher rates.  This is a reason why the curve didn't invert in the 1950s.The necessary adjustments here could be made either by just looking at the short end of the curve, recognizing that the long end of the curve will have a bias for a positive slope. Or, it could be estimated with a regression of the depth of the inversion in the various economic downturns that have happened since WW II.

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