Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann

Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy.

I have a surprising new account of the housing bubble and the financial crisis. This revolutionary new research will be published in late 2018. It will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: Varies
Travels from Phoenix, AZ (US)

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann, visit
https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann

Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Kevin Erdmann
Kevin Erdmann - Motivational Speaker

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy.

I have a surprising new account of the housing bubble and the financial crisis. This revolutionary new research will be published in late 2018. It will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: Varies
Travels from Phoenix, AZ

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Kevin Erdmann

A radical new view of the housing bubble and the economy.

I have a surprising new account of the housing bubble and the financial crisis. This revolutionary new research will be published in late 2018. It will radically change the way you think about investing, real estate, and economic public policy.

Fee Range: Varies
Travels from: Phoenix, AZ

For more information about booking Kevin Erdmann,
Visit https://www.speakermatch.com/profile/KevinErdmann/
Or call SpeakerMatch at 1-866-372-8768.

Blog Postings

Housing: Part 336 - Incomes and the Housing Market

Long-time readers have probably seen some version of this a number of times, but I have been poking around in the awesome Zillow data, and I don't think I have quite done this before.  I have posted individual cities before, but here, I have run regressions of MSA income against rent, prices, and various combinations of these measures.  I am trying to get a systematic time series representation of the importance of income on the housing market.  Here I have used the largest 64 MSAs.

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Discounted Pre-Orders for "Shut Out"

"Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy" is now available for pre-order.  It will be ready to ship in January.Great news: Enter this code on the Rowman & Littlefield site for a 30% discount: 4S18MERC30 If you know anyone who might be interested in the book, this is a good chance to get it at a better price: $28 instead of $40.

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Yield Curve Update

I have written previously about the yield curve.  It appears to me that as interest rates get lower, there is an option value embedded in long term rates because of the zero lower bound.  That means that it is harder for the curve to invert at lower rates.I suspect this comes from my "Upside down CAPM" way of thinking.  There is a relatively stable expected return on at-risk assets like corporate equity, and fixed income is a way to trade off some of those expected returns in exchange for cash flow certainty.  So, a real 10 year yield of 1% is really a payment of about 6% subtracted from the expected real yield o...

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Housing: Part 335 - Homebuyers are hedgers, not speculators

I did get a chance to look at the paper I wrote about in yesterday's post.  They do present reasons for why credit conditions were looser in 2005 than the raw SLOOS survey numbers would suggest, and they have other measures of credit markets that suggest a more symmetrical measure of credit conditions before and after the bubble and bust.  They do not show any regressions that I see that only include the boom time, which is the source of my dis-satisfaction.  But, there are probably some correlations in the paper that would still be statistically significant in the pre-2006 data.So, I stand by my initial reaction,...

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Housing: Part 334 - Credit supply and the housing bubble.

Tyler Cowen links to a new paper today, with this note: "Credit conditions really did matter for the housing bubble." (HT: Tyler)I haven't looked at the paper yet, but I have looked at a set of slides, here.My basic point of view here is:1) Of course credit conditions matter.  This is standard finance.  Credit provides liquidity, and less liquid securities sell...

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Housing: Part 333 - David Beckworth interviews Robert Kaplan

David Beckworth recently interviewed Robert Kaplan from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (transcript).  They discussed many interesting things regarding monetary policy.  There were a couple of items that I thought might be interesting to get into here.Here is one spot:Robert Kaplan: ...The nominal GDP targeting has a lot of appeal in that it takes into account inflation. It takes into account growth. The other thing is we are a very highly leveraged country. It's nominal GDP that services ...

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Housing: Part 332 - The problem in a picture

I came upon some old data recently that I thought was worth sharing.  Sorry, this isn't updated past 2014 data, but the story hasn't changed that much since then.  Maybe real estate values have recovered another 10% or so, compared to personal income.Here is the problem.  There are two housing markets in the US.  A closed one and an open one.  The closed market gives you access to the best economic opportunities in NYC, LA, Boston, and San Francisco (Closed Access cities).  It's limited to about 50 million people.  You want in, you gotta pay.

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Housing: Part 331 - More on Mortgages and Homeownership

Here are a couple more graphs on mortgages and homeownership.  The first one is from the Survey of Consumer Finances, which is conducted every three years.From 2004-2007, homeownership declined somewhat, but mortgaged homeownership increased.The second graph has...

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Housing: Part 330 - Mortgage Originations by Age

The New York Fed now reports mortgage originations by age in its quarterly Household Debt and Credit report.  After the 3rd quarter of 2007, mortgage originations for households under 50 years old dropped by nearly half, and the number has remained stable at that level since then.  Households above 50 years of age have continued originating mortgages at about the same rate as before.

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October 2018 CPI

Shelter inflation had another moderate month, bringing the trailing 12 month shelter inflation rate down a little.Core CPI still running just over 2% and core CPI excluding shelter still running at about 1.4%.  Still in tight but not problematic territory.

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